Retail's Crystal Ball: Experts Predict AI, Profitability, and Shifting Amazon Dominance in 2026

A recent industry survey polled a dozen retail experts, gathering their insights on the most impactful developments of 2025 and their predictions for the year ahead. The findings reveal four major themes reshaping the e-commerce landscape, offering a glimpse into the future of retail.

Key Takeaways

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) has moved beyond hype to practical application, fundamentally altering consumer behavior and operational strategies.
• Profitability has superseded growth-at-all-costs as the primary business objective.
• Incrementality measurement has evolved from a buzzword into a critical business imperative.
• Amazon's long-standing dominance is facing increased competition from channel diversification.

AI Takes Center Stage

Artificial Intelligence was overwhelmingly identified as the most impactful development of 2025, with 82% of respondents noting its influence. AI is reshaping consumer journeys by compressing the path from discovery to purchase, shifting focus from attention to intention. Experts predict a move towards more question-based search queries as AI agents become more sophisticated. For brands, this means creating content that is both compelling for humans and legible for machines, while also re-evaluating operational models to ensure seamless conversion when AI agents recommend products. Looking ahead to 2026, AI is expected to unlock unprecedented speed and precision in areas like trend mining, assortment optimization, and content scaling, enabling brands to achieve personalized customer experiences at scale.

Profitability Replaces Growth as the Primary Lens

In 2025, a significant majority of experts (64%) highlighted profitability and margin pressure as defining themes. Macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving platform dynamics, such as changes to Prime Day, have accelerated a shift away from volume-driven growth towards a focus on profitable expansion. This has forced brands to mature quickly, integrating finance, merchandising, and marketing functions to understand trade-offs and drive profitable demand. For 2026, the emphasis will be on sharper, more intentional strategies, with AI agents potentially favoring long-tail assortments and driving portfolio-level profitability thinking.

Incrementality Evolves into a Business Imperative

Measurement and incrementality challenges were central to 2025's evolution, with 55% of respondents discussing these issues. Incrementality has moved beyond theoretical frameworks to become a real business driver, breaking down organizational silos. Experts distinguish between defensive, offensive, and designed incrementality, with the latter—intentionally engineering growth around specific outcomes—being the hardest yet most valuable to achieve. The industry is seeing a move towards unified measurement across channels and a greater willingness to experiment with new approaches, including causal incrementality measurement and AI use cases, to drive smarter media allocation.

Amazon's Dominance Faces Real Competition

Forty-five percent of respondents discussed channel diversification beyond Amazon as a key development. While Amazon remains critical, its position as the sole center of gravity is being challenged. The rise of platforms like TikTok Shop, coupled with the increasing sophistication of retail media networks, is encouraging brands to explore alternative ecosystems. Retail media has become the de facto operating system for omnichannel strategies, influencing assortment, pricing, content, and measurement. Furthermore, digital performance is increasingly upstream of physical retail, with brands needing to prove themselves online before expanding in-store presence. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels also show potential for resurgence, boosted by LLMs and seamless checkout integrations.

The retail industry in 2026 stands at a pivotal intersection of AI-driven transformation, a renewed focus on profitability, maturing measurement practices, and a more competitive marketplace. Brands that operationalize AI with intention, prioritize profitable growth, measure what truly matters, and make strategic bets will be best positioned to define the next era of commerce.